Thursday, September 29, 2005

Back into Google

Last Friday, just before the US market closed I scraped together all my pennies and bought 12 shares of Google for $316 each. Hardly a bargain when you consider that they were at $280 less than a month ago but I was worried that the share price would never retrace it steps. Of course as soon as Monday came it did retrace its steps a bit but this is a long term holding.

My growth portfolio is extremely under-diversified and extremely fun. I have two main long term holdings - eBay and Google. I also have a stake in Verisign. My only other holding in my growth portfolio is a few Rolls Royce shares - I am building up a stake in them on a monthly basis.

So my portfolio is almost entirely US internet stocks. That is the way I like it. As a software engineer I feel I have a reasonable understanding of the massive potential of these companies.

Over the long term the share price follows the EPS growth. If eBay and Google can keep growing at 30% a year for the next 8 years or so the share price growth should be over 20%, allowing for P/E ratio decay. That is good enough for me.

Verisign is more of a medium term valuation play. I thought they were undervalued at $25. Unfortunately two months laters the shares are at $21! I think when a company's share price plummets after a bad earnings report I am going to make myself wait at least one month before taking advantage of the low price because this year with eBay and Verisign the share price has kept going down for weeks after the initial report.

So it is Google, eBay and Verisign for now. Lets see if this internet bubble really has burst.

3 Comments:

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At 3:46 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whenever you go on the internet, you see sponsored links.

I undertsand that much of the value of Google and Yahoo is through advertising, presumably via companies paying for these links. I looked at Overture and found that for many financial and or insurance products the companies wil pay up to a few pounds for someone to click through and visit their site.

So, I wondered, if a community worldwide just searched for say "car insurance" on all the major search engines and then clicked thorugh once or twice, which is perfectly legal as you are just looking, woudl advertisers then get concerned about their pay per clicks being wasted because there is no way of the search engines knowign whether it is a proper buyer or a someone just lookign as part of a global experiment.

If this was done more an more by different people, I wonder if the internet community could affect the share price of these big companies? Also, could the internet community affect the whole value fo the internet?

Alwasy one for a challenge, I wondered if it would work.....

Any thoughts?

 

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