Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Vodafone Yawn

Vodafone reported full year results last Tuesday for the year ending March 31 2005. Reports of this nature are full of information that is not important. I think the secret is to focus on the few nuggets which are.

For me the important bits are the forward looking statements:

- Revenue growth in the range 6 - 9%
- Margins static or 1% lower
- Dividends to grow in line with earnings
- Buy backs to continue
- Japan still a problem
- Market is very competitive - more competition all the time from MVNOs
- Further aquisitions in Eastern Europe will be actively sought.

The first two points are the most important in my opinion. Growth next year could be as low as 5%. This makes the p/e of 14 look quite high.

I think share price growth in the next 12 months will be very limited. Any growth will probably be caused by the buy backs rather than earnings growth.

So does Vodafone have a place in my aggressive portfolio? It may have a small place as a means of safely investing small amounts in the stock market on a monthly basis. But I won't be repeating the mistake I made last year of having over half my portfolio invested in this giant, thereby severely limiting growth.

I love Vodafone as I company but I hate the share price performance.

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